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            Michael Beer: Efficient reliability analysis with imprecise probabilities

            时间:2023-09-12来源:土木与水利工程学院

            报告时间:2023年9月28日(星期四)9:00

            报告地点:校学术会议中心一楼大报告厅

            :Michael Beer 教授

            工作单位:德国汉诺威莱布尼茨大学

            举办单位:土木与水利工程学院

            报告简介

            An efficient analysis of our engineered systems and structures is a key requirement for their proper design and operation. This requirement, however, is challenging engineers to come up with innovative solutions that can cope with the increasing complexity of our systems and structures and with the uncertainties involved. Imprecise probabilities have shown useful conceptual features to facilitate a modelling at a reasonable level of detail and capturing the remaining epistemic uncertainty in a set-valued manner. This approach allows for an optimal balance between model detailedness and imprecision of results to still derive useful decisions. However, it is also associated with some extensive numerical cost when applied in a crude way. This seminar will provide selected solutions for efficient numerical analysis with imprecise probabilities, specifically for reliability analysis, to attack high-dimensional and nonlinear problems. After an introductory overview on conceptual pathways for solution one intrusive and three non-intrusive specific developments will be discussed. These solutions include operator norm theory to solve first passage problems by linear algebra, intervening variables to moderate nonlinearities for linearized approximate solutions, the exploitation of topological properties of the reliability problem associated with line sampling, and the utilization of high dimensional model representation of the failure probability for non-intrusive efficient sampling. Engineering examples are presented to demonstrate the capabilities of the approaches and concepts.

            报告人简介

            Michael Beer 是德国汉诺威莱布尼茨大学风险与可靠性研究所所长、教授,利物浦大学兼职教授、同济大学与清华大学的客座教授。他在德国德累斯顿工业大学获得博士学位,曾在美国莱斯大学、新加坡国立大学和英国利物浦大学工作。Beer博士的研究侧重于工程中的不确定性量化,重点是不精确概率。Beer 博士是 ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems(A 部分土木工程和 B 部分机械工程)的主编。他还是《地震工程百科全书》的联合主编和《信息科学》的副主编。他曾获得多个奖项,包括 ASCE 的 Alfredo Ang 土木基础设施风险分析和管理奖。Beer 博士是欧洲安全与可靠性协会 (ESRA) 主席,也是 ASCE 基础设施韧性分部 (IRD) 风险与韧性测量委员会 (RRMC) 联合主席。他现任国际安全与可靠性协会(IASSAR)执行委员会委员和欧洲结构动力学协会(EASD)执行委员会委员。他是亚历山大-冯-洪堡基金会的研究员,ASCE (EMI)、ASME、CERRA、IACM 和 GACM 会员。

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